Depending on who you read, there are a few economists out there that say oil is in a bubble just as housing was and gold is.
They feel the fundamentals don't support the high price and predict when the oil bubble bursts due to slowing economies world wide reducing demand oil will fall to $34-$45 a barrel.
A big part of the high cost is the week dollar. W. and his "Plunge Protection Team" are printing dollars so fast trying to save Wall Street and the Banks from the housing mess they and Alan Greenspan created, the dollar gets weaker by the minute. The rest of the world economies are about 2 years behind the U.S. with their housing bubbles, only recently have reports of housing troubles, falling prices, and defaults begun to surface in places like Spain, Ireland, and the UK. So the Euro and Pound have been strong against the Dollar driving up prices. This will change soon as other economies also slow.
Now a huge discovery could help that happen for sure. I am a cynic though. The money guys will do what ever they can to keep the price as high as they can. I don't see $16 a barrel though, probably ~$60, That seems to be the price set by demand naturally when China and India began consuming more and driving up the price, but even that may not hold out, China sets the price people pay for gas and subsidies the difference. It's getting hard for the government to keep the cost down which means high costs, which means higher cost exports, which means less demand, so.... Maybe ~$45 but, I don't think so.
High oil prices hurt Chinese refiner When oil bubble bursts Not that I have been thinking about this much... :wink: