I wonder if the water pump isn't pumping hard enough?? And is letting the coolant sit in the rad too long without pushing it into the engine fast enough?
If you can warm the engine up and have the top hose hot and bottom hose cold then it should NOT be overheating since the cold water in the lower hose is what's going into the engine.
How fast does the antifreeze shoot into the top of the coolant tank?
You are kind of arguing with yourself on this one. Yes, IF there is sufficient flow, the different rad hose temps will let you know what is going to the engine, but - as you correctly surmise - if there is something not circulating that cold water in the bottom hose isn't going anywhere.
While I too don't trust the accuracy of the stock instruments, seeing it move significantly under load is all that is important. If the cooling system (including thermostat) are doing its job, once up to operating temp, the gauge should rise to some point on the face (varies from car to car) and just stop under ANY further load.
I have had a lot of trouble with re-built water pumps from really bad domestic and import (as in NOT imported from Europe) suppliers. Some have such poor quality impellers (stamped steel like a typical Yank Tank) that they don't pump at idle and cavitate like mad at high rpm. Just something else to consider.